Every year in Papua New Guinea, climate change is causing king tides — the most extreme high tides of the year — to reach higher and farther ashore, and storm surges to increase in magnitude and intensity. This has inundated coastlines, destroyed habitats, and threatened livelihoods. But perhaps the most profound consequence of climate change is the displacement of communities with ancestral ties to their land, forced to migrate as their islands literally disappear. Rising sea levels amplify these king tides, bringing seawater far inland and causing severe damage to coastal communities — indiscriminately flooding homes, gardens, farms, and other critical infrastructure. Local women are on the frontlines of adaptation efforts in Papua New Guinea, paving the way for the survival and resilience of their communities.
Sea Levels in Papua New Guinea are projected to rise by as much as 15 centimeters by 2030.
Papua New Guinea experiences more than twice the worldwide average increase in sea levels each year. Climate models in Papua New Guinea simulate a sea level rise between 5–15 cm by 2030, with increases of 20–60 cm by 2090 projected under the high-emissions scenarios.
Melting ice sheets and ocean warming are causing sea levels to rise and storms to intensify, increasing the strength and frequency of abnormally high, or “king” tides.
Extreme changes in sea level will cause king tides to extend much farther inland, endangering not only coastal communities but also inland communities as many islands are likely to be completely submerged in water during king tides.
Rising sea levels may turn today’s king tides into tomorrow’s daily tides, providing a glimpse into the future. The catastrophically extreme tides experienced in 2021 may be a warning of king tides to come.
In 2021, parts of Papua New Guinea experienced a surge in king tides that flooded coastal villages and displaced over 53,000 people.
Schools, residences, gardens, water catchments, and cemeteries were inundated in coastal and island communities across Bougainville, Manus Island, East Sepik, and the New Ireland provinces. Some houses were entirely swept away by the flooding caused by king tides.
The escalation of sea levels and king tides damaged 10 coastal villages within the province of New Ireland.
The high tide has forced the villagers to begin building seawalls to protect their homes and drinking water sources.
Houses and gardens of at least 3,400 people in four communities in the Carteret Islands were completely submerged.
In East Sepik, the flooding led to the evacuation of communities inland to higher elevations.
Displacement and land loss disproportionately affect women and their livelihoods.
In Papua New Guinea, female labor is mainly concentrated in subsistence agriculture, as opposed to commercial farming. More than 50% of the female labor force is expected to provide unpaid work, and only about 15% of women own land — and even then, their rights are conventionally secondary to those of the men in the family.
Only 1% of female landowners in Papua New Guinea report being the main decision-makers regarding their land.
As a result, it is difficult for women to access and influence agricultural resources. This is exacerbated by land loss due to rising sea levels and increased king tides, as farms and gardens are being lost to the ocean. As a result, crop yields are significantly reduced, affecting the ability Papua New Guinean women to provide for their families and ultimately, to survive.
In the Carteret Islands, severe food shortages have forced many islanders to leave their homes.
Located northeast of the mainland, the Carteret Islands are a series of seven small coral atolls under the jurisdiction of the Autonomous Region of Bougainville that form a circular configuration. These atolls have a peak elevation of 1.2 meters above sea level and together cover an area of 0.6 square kilometers.
The Carteret Islands are now at the forefront of a battle against rising sea levels and intensifying king tides. Local residents estimate that up to two meters of coastline are lost to the sea every year.
In recent decades, rising sea levels have carved a channel that splits the Huene island in two.
Because land is a scarce resource on the Carteret Islands, there are limited opportunities for agriculture. Today, rising sea levels and king tides make it almost impossible for local residents to grow any food on the islands, where most water sources are regularly inundated by seawater.
The prevalence of malnutrition has reached alarming levels, creating a crisis that is preventing teachers and students from showing up at school.
The Bougainville government made several efforts to resettle people from the Carteret Islands throughout the 20th century. Despite these efforts, all attempts were unsuccessful due to obstacles such as limited land availability, disputes with local communities over land, and inadequate support for integration. As a result, the majority of resettled islanders eventually returned to the Carteret Islands.
As the encroaching seas continued to force the relocation of Carteret communities, and with insufficient support from Bougainville authorities, women of the Carteret Islands took control of their destiny to “sail the waves on their own” and lead a relocation project.
Recognizing the urgent need to resettle the displaced people of the Carterets, an organization called Tulele Peisa developed a home-grown initiative to help the islanders who had lost the land beneath their feet.
Tulele Peisa began coordinating relocations from the sinking Carteret Islands to Tinputz, Bougainville in 2008.
Recognizing the need for capacity building among resettled Carteret families, Tulele Peisa established an agricultural research station to support smallholder farmers through training in areas such as crop diversification, mangrove regeneration, and home gardening. Given the population's historical dependence on marine resource management, these skills are critical to their transition.
The organization established a tree nursery in Tinputz, where some 35,000 trees identified as uniquely adaptable and productive are being grown.
Without government support, Tulele Peisa relies on limited financial support from a variety of civil society donors from around the world.
Papua New Guinea needs the Loss and Damage Fund to help communities displaced and affected by rising sea levels and the other devastating consequences of climate change.
Rising sea levels and intensified king tides are only a fraction of the impacts of climate change on Pacific nations like Papua New Guinea. Small island communities like the Carteret Islands are bearing the brunt of the impacts, even though developed nations are responsible for the lion's share of the greenhouse gas emissions that are causing the climate crisis. The efforts of women leaders and organizations like Tulele Peisa to rebuild the lives of climate refugees must be supported by those in positions of authority.
The destructive impact of king tides in Papua New Guinea underscores the urgency of the Loss and Damage Fund — a novel financial mechanism through which developed countries can aid small islands and developing nations in their fight for survival in the face of climate change. Designed to support those at the frontlines of climate change, the Loss & Damage Fund will empower vulnerable countries to recover from climate-induced losses and adapt to new realities.
As a lifeline for small island nations during this global crisis, the impact of the Loss and Damage Fund's will go beyond addressing the crisis caused by the rising sea levels. The Loss and Damage Fund will be a model of international cooperation for a just and sustainable future — for present and future generations of Papua New Guineans and all residents of small island and coastal states.
“I am a youth of a small island,
At night I look up to the nights skies and see stars twinkling,
Stars which represent an era of dreamers and the doers,
Dreams of those like me,
Visions of a better tomorrow all brightening up the night sky,
Waiting to dazzle the land from which I come from.”
Excerpt from “I am a Youth of a Small Island” by Vinzealhar Ainjo Nen.
